Context Matters

Cherry-picking and risk

An interactive lesson with 6 steps, about 5 minutes: you predict, drag and solve, with instant feedback on every answer. It runs in your browser and needs JavaScript.

What you’ll learn

• Cherry-picked time windows can tell any story.
• Relative risk (“doubles”) can sound dramatic when absolute risk is tiny.
• Ask for absolute numbers and the full time range.

Steps

1. Choose your window
2. Relative versus absolute
3. Absolute risk
4. Number needed to treat
5. Doubling a small risk
6. Doubling a tiny risk