The Long Run

The law of large numbers

An interactive lesson with 6 steps, about 5 minutes: you predict, drag and solve, with instant feedback on every answer. It runs in your browser and needs JavaScript.

What you’ll learn

• Independent events have no memory. Believing otherwise is the gambler’s fallacy.
• Law of large numbers: over many trials, proportions approach the true probability.
• Small samples vary much more than large ones.

Steps

1. Due for tails?
2. Watch it settle
3. Small samples
4. Expected count
5. How much wobble?
6. Two hospitals