Modelling Epidemics
Math · Intermediate · Lesson 7 of 7

Vaccinated in Hospital

Counts versus rates

An interactive lesson with 6 steps, about 5 minutes: you predict, drag and solve, with instant feedback on every answer. It runs in your browser and needs JavaScript.

What you’ll learn

  • When coverage is high, many cases can be vaccinated even with a good vaccine.
  • Compare rates within groups, not raw counts: the base-rate fallacy.
  • With 90% efficacy, half of patients are vaccinated at about 91% coverage.

Steps

  1. A puzzling headline
  2. A town of 1,000
  3. Rising coverage
  4. The right comparison
  5. Read the rates
  6. Work out the efficacy