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Math · Intermediate

Modelling Epidemics

Mathematical models help public-health experts understand how infections spread and how to slow them. Learn what the reproduction number R means, why R = 1 is the tipping point, how herd immunity works, how the classic SIR model predicts the course of an outbreak, why some diseases become endemic, and why chance and superspreaders matter so much early on.

7 lessons~35 min0/7 complete
Start courseHelpful background: Functions & Graphs
1

Spreading

Growth and thresholds.

  1. The Reproduction NumberGenerations of infection
  2. Tipping PointsR = 1 and herd immunity
2

The SIR Model

A whole outbreak in three equations.

  1. The SIR ModelSusceptible, infected, recovered
  2. Flattening the CurveWhat interventions do
3

Beyond SIR

Endemic diseases and the role of chance.

  1. Endemic DiseasesWhen immunity doesn’t last
  2. Chance & SuperspreadingWhy most sparks fizzle
  3. Vaccinated in HospitalCounts versus rates