Chance & Superspreading

Why most sparks fizzle

An interactive lesson with 7 steps, about 6 minutes: you predict, drag and solve, with instant feedback on every answer. It runs in your browser and needs JavaScript.

What you’ll learn

• Early outbreaks are ruled by chance: many introductions fizzle.
• Extinction probability solves $q = e^{R(q-1)}$; at $R = 2\ln 2$ it's 50%.
• Superspreading makes spread clustered; targeting risky settings and hubs is effective.

Steps

1. A branching process
2. Five sparks
3. Below one
4. Even odds
5. Superspreaders
6. Targeting clusters
7. The friendship paradox